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AXIA remains a buy as its privatization-driven turnaround continues to deliver S&P 500-beating returns and operational improvements. AXIA's asset swap with ISA Energia, yielding BRL 1.17 billion, further simplifies its structure and aligns with its strategy to optimize minority stakes. Despite mixed recent earnings, cost controls and non-recurring gains support future dividend potential and reinforce the investment thesis.

AXIA Energia SA (AXIA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

This article is part of our monthly series where we highlight five large-cap, relatively safe, dividend-paying companies offering significant discounts to their historical norms. We go over our filtering process to select just five conservative DGI stocks from more than 7,500 companies that are traded on U.S. exchanges, including OTC networks. In addition to the primary list that yields 4.2%, we present two other groups of five DGI stocks each, from moderate to high yields of up to 8% plus.

AXIA Energia stands as the leading Brazilian energy company, with 44.4 GW installed capacity and a dominant role in the region's energy transition. Transitioning from regulated to free market pricing is driving margin expansion, with unit margins rising from R$55/MWh to R$95/MWh and further upside expected. Asset recycling, operational efficiency, and disciplined capital allocation underpin AXIA's deleveraging and dividend strategy, despite near-term free cash flow constraints.

Axia Energia (AXIA) has significantly boosted its Revenue and Free Cash Flow following the shift from Quota Regime to Free Market prices after its privatization. After a small battle with the government for voting power, lower energy prices and the necessity to build up its commercial capability, the market can now focus Axia's fundamentals. I expect the company to be able to generate BRL 15B in Free Cash Flow, which should be used entirely to fund a +10% shareholder return.

Nvidia earnings have cast a light on defensive areas, inducing a sector rotation that may accelerate in the short term. Looking beyond NVDA earnings, an economic environment characterized by slowing growth, persistent inflation, and tariff uncertainty is compelling investors to look beyond overbought tech. This shift favors sectors that offer resilience, stable cash flow, and intrinsic value over speculative future growth.

Axia Energia is entering a new growth phase that will include active participation in Brazilian power-sector auctions, potentially through partnerships to compete for major transmission-line projects, Chief Executive Ivan Monteiro told Reuters.