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Geopolitical tensions have driven oil prices higher and created market backwardation, testing PAA's reduced reliance on arbitrage and trading revenues. PAA's EBITDA guidance for FY'26 is $2.75B, but higher oil prices could lift this to $2.84B, supporting a bullish rating at an 11.5x EV/EBITDA multiple. Despite recent share gains, potential downside exists if lost arbitrage revenue outweighs contract tailwinds amid ongoing market disruptions.

The inflation dragon seems to be returning. This time the timing might coincide with a system-wide selloff (e.g., private credit risks, richly priced AI names, etc.). The question is where to park capital to protect portfolio cash flows from value erosion and potentially significant leg-down.

PAA has registered a YTD total return performance of ~23%. Yet, all of this has been justified, and given the recent distribution increase, the entry point remains attractive. For example, the war in Iran and surging crude prices have enhanced PAA's EBITDA outlook, with sensitivity to higher WTI and Permian Basin production volumes.

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Plains All American Pipeline is upgraded to a buy, benefiting from oil market tailwinds and a streamlined, oil-focused asset base. Post-NGL divestment, PAA will derive 85% of EBITDA from fee-based services, supporting stable and growing distributions with an 8% yield. I expect 2026 EBITDA could reach $2.85 billion if oil prices remain elevated, with potential for upward guidance revision.

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For investors seeking stability and an outsize yield, Plains All American Pipeline is worth a close look.