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25.68
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MTY Food Group trades at just 6x FCF, offering a 16% FCF yield and deep value for a historically cash-generative, diversified, asset-light franchisor. Cold Stone Creamery and Wetzel's Pretzels alone are conservatively worth nearly MTY's entire market cap, highlighting significant undervaluation. Despite declining same-store sales, MTY's FCF/share, dividends, and buyback potential remain robust, with most brands performing steadily except Papa Murphy's.
MTY Food Group offers resilient, recurring cash flows from a diversified, predominantly franchised portfolio of 90 brands, trading at a P/FCF below 7. I rate MTY as a Buy with a conservative fair value of $55 per share, reflecting 60% upside and a 4.2% dividend yield. Despite 11 quarters of negative same-store sales, MTY's FCF remains robust; ongoing strategic review provides near-term optionality.
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